1 november 2004

divine wind

The summary: Senator Kerry cannot garner over 50% of the popular vote; President Bush can, and almost certainly will. More importantly, Kerry cannot reasonably hope to hit the 300 EV mark, whereas the President can, along any of a number of different vectors.

Here is a conservative picture of the margin of victory:

296-242.jpg

The EV score in the map above is 296-242, Red. Note that it differs from Stephen Green's only in that I've given Wisconsin to the GOP, because Kerry just isn't going to run the table in the upper Midwest.

I'll even go further. Tuesday's results are more likely to look like this:

325-213.jpg

325-213, with Minnesota, New Jersey, and Hawaii added to the GOP fold.

The popular vote will be 52-48%, +/- 1%. The GOP will pick up one net seat in the Senate for every point in the popular vote spread.

Oh, and Tom Daschle is going down.

Live blogging here Tuesday night. Don't let that Vodkapundit guy get all the traffic.



comments

Recent polls don't seem to support your "map," so I guess we will just have to wait until tonight to see who is right... Hope you are!!!!!!!!

justin | 2 november 2004, 12:38 pm | link
 

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