the fine art of prognostication

Stephen Green has for some weeks been running a feature he calls Wargaming the Electoral College—essentially a map and commentary discussing his best guess of what would happen were the election held the day of the posting. It's a game anyone can play; go to Opinion Journal and click on Electoral College Calculator in the left column (no direct link—said calculator is a javascript popup).

As of the time I write this, it's seven weeks exactly until the polls close on the West Coast: an auspicious time to cast my predictions. The result is below.

There are a few differences between my map and the VodkaPundit's latest. On the Left Coast I've moved Oregon to the Red column, although the polls there remain tight (and in Kerry's favor). My theory is that no state with a ballot initiative on gay marriage will go Blue this cycle (and that goes double for Ohio). Nevada will probably be Bush country, but I made it Blue to avoid being too optimistic.

Then again, I may well have made that error in middle America, which is solid Red save for Illinois and Michigan: the former because of Barack Obama—who will singlehandedly salvage Kerry's prospects there—and the latter as a nod to the fading power of Big Labor. Further east I stuck New Hampshire in the R column as my gut feeling is the the Democrats will not completely sweep New England and the mid-Atlantics.

So there you have it. Although I will certainly be wrong on some states, my prediction is nonetheless that Bush will get something north of 300 electoral votes. The big news—at least for bitter stolen-election fetishists—will be in the popular vote, where the president will garner about 53%, making this poll the first since 1988 that a presidential candidate receives a majority. And once it becomes clear that Kerry is a lost cause (by sometime next Thursday or so) the taboo against voting conscience rather than party will be broken, depressing the Senator's take to around 44%.

In the Senate, the Republicans will pick up at least four seats. But not quite enough to break filibusters: though I suspect that Sen. Dr. Frist has had quite enough of playing Mr. Nice Guy, thank you. And in the House?—well, there simply is no story in the House, except perhaps to wonder why the Democrats will even bother showing up there come January.

And my second favorite result (after the presidential ticket, natch) will be seeing the wheels come off Tom Daschle's wagon. I may or may not get around to finishing the rules for an election night drinking game. But that one alone will be worth a full pint of a stout so stiff that it can stand without a glass.

Oh, yeah.

If the Repubs played their cards right, they might move Cal into the red. Look at Thune making Daschle shit his pants. The Cal Repubs could've made Boxer wet her panties, but they didn't even try. What's that about?

BTW, did u see the ROTK extended DVD spoilers?

http://www.theonering.net/perl/newsview/8/1095024340

Yeah, you can say the same thing about not running a credible candidate against Schumer in NY. Said candidate probably would not have won (well, perhaps Rudy coulda) but what's with not even trying?